New Delhi [India], May 7 (ANI): A sharp slowdown in MSME loan growth, followed by higher ECLGS reliance, would be a sub-optimal outcome, although it is still early to assess lender-wise results, according to a report by Kotak Institutional Equities.

The Union Cabinet has recently approved the Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) 5.0 to extend guaranteed emergency credit to MSMEs, non-MSMEs, and airlines. This measure aims to address the liquidity stress arising from the West Asia crisis and follows an early-intervention approach to contain a self-reinforcing slowdown in credit growth.

The Government of India designed the latest iteration of the scheme to preserve lender confidence rather than mask asset quality. As per the report, by providing timely liquidity, the program intends to reverse the self-fulfilling cycle of credit contraction.

'However, outcomes will remain dependent on lender confidence and risk appetite, rather than guarantee availability alone,' the report noted. 'Lender confidence will be key to monitor. In our view, a sharp slowdown in MSME loan growth, followed by higher ECLGS reliance, would be a sub-optimal outcome, although it is still early to assess lender-wise results.'

The ECLGS 5.0 scheme provides 100 per cent guarantee cover for MSMEs and 90 per cent for non-MSMEs and airlines through the National Credit Guarantee Trustee Company (NCGTC). These facilities are extended on additional working capital by Member Lending Institutions to standard borrowers with existing credit lines as of March 31, 2026, who are currently facing liquidity issues. The program applies to loans sanctioned until March 31, 2027, and features nil guarantee fees for the beneficiaries.

'The scheme targets Rs 2.55 tn of incremental credit flow with funding capped at 20 per cent of peak working capital utilization in 4QFY26 (up to Rs 1 bn per borrower) for MSMEs/non-MSMEs, while airlines are conditionally eligible for up to 100 per cent (capped at Rs 15 bn per borrower),' the report stated.

This intervention follows the playbook of the original ECLGS introduced in May 2020 during the pandemic. That initial rollout addressed liquidity mismatches for businesses and supported asset quality for the lending system.

It eventually covered approximately 12 million loans amounting to nearly Rs 3.7 trillion. Data from the previous versions showed that claim settlements from the NCGTC were satisfactory, and the formation of non-performing assets in the guaranteed pool remained limited at less than 6 per cent.

The report highlighted that 'credit guarantees broke the negative feedback loop where lenders tighten credit to manage risk,' which then aggravates stress. By encouraging lenders to view the current disruption as temporary, the scheme aims to prevent a sharp tightening in credit conditions that is often difficult to unwind.

While the micro and small enterprise segments saw higher stress in previous versions, the early launch of the current program is intended to preempt similar pressures. (ANI)